I will try to imagine myself a small fly on the wall in the presidential palace.
Here is my analysis first
First, the discussion is centered on the fact that Syria accepted the Arab initiative with a short time strategy. It accepted the initiative to gain time and throw the opposition in disarray. Then it actually flipped the finger at the AL by continuing the violence and the repression and orchestrating mass demonstrations. It thought that this will give it all the time it needs. It did not count on the new facts on the ground:
1. The AL and every member state is facing a new reality called an active people educated and asking for participatory rule. Even KSA has used its massive wealth to buy yes buy loyalty from its citizens as it knows it no longer can use force. The people are fed up with one man rule with nepotism and corruption and graft and torture and yes slavery. This is the mentality of the regime in Syria and Libya. Either I rule you or I kill you. This is the mentality of the regime that is based I would say like the Zionist one on an exclusive place for the sect and the family in the world order.
2. The Qatari actually anticipated this very reaction and gave the regime a rope to hang itself with. The regime drunk with power was even more stoned after the UNSC vetoes and thought itself immune. Once the facts of non compliance become known and the inability of the regime to genuinely respond become obvious the AL under the GCC moved for the kill. The decision stems from the desire to deny legitimacy to the regime or at least its current method of control. It also stems from the fact that the Arab world is watching to see if any of these rulers are going to hijack the revolutions and keep the regimes in place.
3. The hysteria of the regime and its supporters is because the AL has effectively withdrawn legitimacy by suspending Syria’s representation; by offering a dialogue with the SNC; and by actually forcing the Coordinating committees in Cairo to commit to regime change. The local Coordinating Committees had requested regime change while leaving room for the current leadership to stay in place but the media exposure forced them to declare that the Security State in Syria is not acceptable and that they are not in dialogue with the regime itself.
4. Calling on the armed forces to resist orders is the most important item in this regard as it clearly says that these orders and therefore the people issuing the orders are not legitimate or legal.
5. Now that the AL has forced the issue, Russia is in a corner as it has always maintained that it is fostering a peaceful resolution and promoting dialogue without ever recognizing the legitimacy of the opposition. Now it will be forced to recognize the opposition as a valid and legitimate partner in this invitation to dialogue. In essence the stupidity of the regime has forced the hand of its supporters into recognizing the opposition. If the opposition cannot get its act together now then Syria is doomed.
6. There is clearly talk in Syria of arming the “people” and as Hajj Ali said this am on Aljazeera we will all wear army uniforms now; this talk is meant for the regime base and only the regime base. It is a desperate attempt to rally the troops as they are now fearful of defections within their own ranks.
7. Power delusion we witnessed with the Ghadafi clique as his sons just like Rami warned of dire consequences to the stability of Israel and the West, and we heard the Tooz on the AL from both Saif and the Syrian ambassador. This is emotional outburst that belies a complete misunderstanding of the change sweeping the region and of the balance of power in the region. Money talks and BS walks and B is going to walk. How soon and on which plank is the question now.
Now here is the imagination scene
B: What do I do now? 18 of the Arabths are after me and they are calling on the army not to follow my orderths. Pleathe Athma quiet the kidths I need to think. I have not done that in a while now.
A: crying silently and hugging the kids who are also crying because they cannot play while daddy is thinking.
M: In a rage destroying the furniture and ordering the killing of about 1000 detainees in Tadmur. Even his mother is avoiding him today.
R: Pulling his calculator and re calculating the prices and the creating an excel sheet of where the deposits are.
Now the serious work will be the privy of the old guard of the regime: these are absolutely ruthless thugs that may be plotting acts of revenge in various Arab countries and Turkey. The problem is that the AL is moving way too fast for their taste in this regard. When the AL head says that they are working on ways to protect the Syrian population, this means that the plan is moving forward and it has been thought through for some time. This the reason for the silence of the Turks as they coordinated with the AL and Qatar to see whether the regime is capable of reforms and whether the opposition can get its act together. Now we will see others helping the opposition form a legitimate alternative to the regime. Now they and others will have an Arab cover for intervention.
By the way there is a Dom Perignon bottle that we have kept since 1964 waiting to be uncorked I hope that we can celebrate soon.
I was talking with an American relative who lives on the West coast. She was crying and said she felt so much pain for us. I honestly don’t understand what she means.
I am so unbelievably blessed.
Yes, there are tanks in the streets, army checkpoints most places, shooting and tragedy. But I’m so much luckier than people far away, non Syrians who don’t have the same worries about their own homelands. Those people will finish studies, marry, have kids, live to a ripe old age….and never have done anything nearly as noble as win freedom for their country.
How so much fortunate we all are than our parents, who never got the chance to take on a despot. Without evil, there can be no good. Without darkness, no light. Without depraved villains, no heroes. We, all of us, have been blessed to be present at the exact place and time when our country is living through its most decisive days. What happens in Syria has already changed the Middle East, and will continue to do so for years to come.
Feel sorry for us? I wouldn’t miss this for anything in the world. Days like these come once every two generations. The last time the Middle East was disrupted in such a fashion was 1967. I don’t know about everyone else, but I’m not waiting 44 years for another chance to be part of incredible events.
Feel sorry for us? I pity people who will never have the chance to do anything remotely as extraordinary as what I’ve seen the people of Homs and Syria do, every single day for eight months.